After decades of bipartisan support for Israel, a new AP-NORC poll shows a dramatic erosion in support for the long-standing American alliance, with growing opposition from Democrats and signs of division among Republicans.
The AP-NORC Public Affairs Research Center survey comes as the once-consensus foreign policy issue increasingly divides Americans by party and generation, fueled by criticism of Israel's behavior nearly three years after the latest war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip erupted.
About a third of American adults, including roughly half of Democrats, believe that Israel committed genocide against Palestinians during the Gaza war. This accusation has been made by some human rights groups and is vehemently denied by the Israeli and US governments. About two in 10 Americans say Israel did not commit such a crime, and the remaining half say they are undecided.
A similar proportion, 30%, of Jewish adults also hold this view, although about half of them, 49%, believe that there was no genocide.
Harold Kalmus, a 69-year-old Democrat from Delaware who identifies as Jewish by birth, said he was proud of Israel when he was younger. He’s not now. „I understand that Hamas is a threat. And I know they’re in a very difficult situation, but what they’ve done is an unspeakable horror,” he said of Israel’s military action against the Palestinians. „As far as I’m concerned, they’re trying to wipe out a civilization.”
How did we conduct the survey?
The AP-NORC The Center for Public Affairs Research surveyed 3,040 American adults between June 11 and 17. The survey included 1,022 Jewish adults, allowing for a more reliable estimate of the views of this group. Respondents were categorized as Jewish if they were Jewish by religion or if they were not religiously affiliated but considered themselves Jewish because of their ethnic, cultural or family background.
The findings mark a sharp turn in views on Israel, nearly three years after Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel, mostly civilians, while taking 251 hostages to Gaza. According to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, more than 73,000 Palestinians have died in the Gaza war.
Many Americans, about 40%, cannot judge whether Israel's immediate military response or its current actions were justified. Of those who have a strong opinion, most believe the original retaliation was justified, but a majority say the current actions are no longer.
Democrats' support is declining
The AP-NORC poll shows a decisive shift within the Democratic Party. About 581% of Democrats now say the United States is „too supportive” of Israel, up from 451% in January 2024, when Joe Biden was president. That number rises to 511% among Jewish Democrats in the new survey.
About six in ten Democrats (62%) say the U.S. „doesn’t support the Palestinians enough,” up from 49% in 2024. Younger Democrats (ages 45 and younger) are still more likely to say this, but older Democrats are starting to catch up: about 57% say the U.S. should do more for the Palestinians, up from 39% two years ago.
The Republican Party stands by Israel
Only a fraction of Republicans, 131%, describe Israel's actions as genocide, although there is also an age difference. Among Republicans under 45, two in 10 say Israel has committed genocide, compared with one in 10 among those older than 45.
Overall, 601% of Republicans find US support for Israel „adequate.” Only two in ten Republicans say the US is „too supportive” of the Israelis.
Netanyahu is widely unpopular
In interviews, several respondents emphasized that their criticism of Israel is directed at leaders, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who they perceive as a close ally of Trump. Overall, only 20% of American adults have a favorable opinion of the Israeli prime minister, while 38% have an unfavorable opinion.
Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York City and a vocal critic of Israel, is gaining popularity: 27% of American adults have a positive opinion of him, 28% have a negative opinion, while 44% cannot judge. Among Jewish adults, Mamdani is more popular than Netanyahu: 44% see him positively.
But that's not the most important issue for Americans heading into the upcoming midterm elections. For Michael Ripka, a 34-year-old from Wyoming who usually votes Republican, the economy is the top priority: "Everything is incredibly expensive," he said, adding that conflicts in the Middle East are "a big distraction in 100%.".
The survey's margin of sampling error is +/- 2.8 percentage points among the general adult population and +/- 5.0 percentage points among Jewish adults.
