As Israeli-American relations become strained, some are speculating whether the true "special relationship" has ended.
Written by: Simon Speakman Cordall
For many in Israel, it seems inevitable that US President Donald Trump will reassess Washington's relations with Israel - the alliance that has sustained the Israeli army from countless Zionist militias since its formation in 1948.
Currently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on a dangerous path for his political survival: facing prison on pending corruption charges and a general election that could remove him from office later this year.
With Washington having to make a deal with Iran (which includes Lebanon – which Israel has been bombing since 2023) and the Israeli public wanting the war to continue, Netanyahu is facing one of the most challenging periods of his four-decade political career.
A year after reports of US-Iranian friction during the previous war against Iran in June 2025, relations appear to have deteriorated further due to disagreements over how to deal with Tehran.
Iran has made ending the Israeli war in South Lebanon a key demand in talks with Washington for a possible bilateral peace agreement, setting the US and Israel on a path to serious disagreements.
Last month, in a leaked phone call — which the White House did not deny — Trump, apparently desperate to end a war with Iran, berated Netanyahu for his refusal to halt attacks on Lebanon.
Trump reportedly called Netanyahu „crazy” and accused him of ungratefulness, telling him he would already be in prison if he hadn’t intervened. „Now everyone hates you. Everyone hates Israel because of this,” he reportedly told Netanyahu.
In an interview with Axios last week, Trump said that Netanyahu „knows who’s boss” — an admission that the relationship between the two leaders is strained.
In a press conference in June, JD Vance described Trump as the only world leader currently sympathetic to Israel. At the same time, he sharply warned Israeli ministers who criticize the upcoming US-Iran deal that „two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have defended [their country] were built by American hands and paid for by American taxpayers.”.
Trouble in MAGA-land
The latest polls show that not only is the American public turning against Israel, but there is also strong skepticism among certain sections of Trump’s right-wing populist „Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement.
MAGA defectors, such as influential loyalist Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been outspoken in their criticism of American support for Israel. One of the most vocal critics on the right-wing political spectrum is former television host Tucker Carlson, who said in late June that Trump has finally realized that Israel is the biggest threat to his administration.
In opening his podcast, Carlson accused Israel of „coercing, persuading, threatening” Trump to attack Iran as an excuse to „start another war against a neighbor, Lebanon.”.
According to Daniel Byman, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a professor at Georgetown University in Washington, although Trump is the president of the Republican Party – traditionally the most pro-Israel party in the American establishment – he has the tools to deal with Israel.
„"I think President Trump has a lot of room to maneuver. While many Republicans are strongly pro-Israel, the president has a very loyal base and has shown that he can rally the vast majority of his party," Byman told Al Jazeera. "A lot of Democrats would join him on that - the party is increasingly critical of Israel."”
Few in Israel are unaware of the importance of American diplomatic and military support throughout the country’s history. Since 2016, Israel has benefited from a 10-year, $38 billion military aid memorandum of understanding—the largest ever between the US and another country.
American diplomatic support has also been crucial for Israel during its globally unpopular genocidal war in Gaza, which has killed at least 72,000 Palestinians since October 7, 2023. Washington has used its UN veto no fewer than six times to support Israel in related UN debates.
Political dependence
In the run-up to the Israeli elections, many of Netanyahu's political opponents have placed great emphasis on breaking with the US and increasing international isolation, despite the fact that most of them supported Israel's wars in the region, which led to this diplomatic crisis.
In mid-June, former Prime Minister and opposition leader Yair Lapid stepped up his criticism of Netanyahu's apparent failure to retain Israel's primary ally. "If we don't quickly replace this government, Israel's foreign relations will be destroyed," he wrote on X.
Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israeli army chief of staff and the most likely candidate to replace Netanyahu in this year’s election, has been no less critical of the prime minister’s handling of foreign affairs. Eisenkot recently accused Netanyahu of mishandling the situation, forcing Trump to act alone and seek a deal with Iran, further isolating Israel from its number one ally.
„The US is really the hinge that guarantees Israel’s place in the world,” said Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg. „The US provides everything for Israel – protection, technology, diplomatic positions – everything.”
American author and former diplomat Aaron David Miller noted that while Trump is not the first American president to clash with Israel, few have done so so publicly.
„[But] no American president or vice president has spoken in the style of the current administration or leaked conversations with Israeli counterparts in which they are belittled and discredited,” he said. „Israel has never been so unpopular in Congress or with the public, whether Republican or Democratic voters.”
But despite the tensions, there is no sign that the Trump administration is considering a complete break with Israel.
„If Trump were to put serious pressure on Israel, it would have to be to achieve a significant breakthrough that would paint him in a favorable light,” Miller said. „There is no issue — not Lebanon, not Gaza, not Israeli-Saudi normalization — that comes close to a breakthrough that would justify sustained pressure on Israel.”
