Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under increasing political, legal and American pressure ahead of crucial elections.
The upcoming Israeli elections are likely to decide the political legacy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under increasing pressure over his handling of wars in the region and corruption allegations.
Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is known as the "ultimate survivor" of Israeli politics. But with a general election scheduled for October, he faces his biggest challenge yet, which could spell the bitter end of a nearly four-decade political career.
The incident follows a series of political events after Netanyahu reportedly convinced US President Donald Trump to join him in a war against Iran launched on February 28. This prompted Tehran to launch its own strikes on Israel, the Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel is also embroiled in another war in the north with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The situation has left Netanyahu caught between two fires: US pressure to halt the military offensive in Lebanon and Israeli public opinion, which is ready to continue the fight against Iran and its regional allies.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is also grappling with widespread public outrage for failing to order an independent public investigation into his government's failures before and after the Hamas-led Israeli attacks on October 7, 2023.
Following the genocidal war in Gaza and the subsequent war, Israel is facing increasing international scrutiny, has become a pariah state in the eyes of some countries, and is receiving harsher criticism from the American political elite.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to face multiple corruption charges dating back to 2019; if found guilty, he could end up behind bars.
Ultimately, the Israeli elections come at one of the most critical moments for both Netanyahu and the country.
„It looks like [Netanyahu] could be in big trouble,” political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera. „The US-Iran deal has not been well received, and the public is not at all clear about what is happening in Lebanon. Nobody knows if it is a ceasefire, a withdrawal or what, and the press here is very suspicious. Finally, there is the US issue. For a long time, the Israelis liked to believe that they could operate autonomously, but recent events have really shown that this is just a fiction.”
Predicament
The Israeli public is aware of the importance of American support for the country's security. Now, it seems that Israel and the US have very different views on the future of the Lebanon war: Trump wants to reduce the fighting so that the peace with Iran can be preserved and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal.
Iran ensured that Lebanon was part of the agreement to end the war with the US, so any new Israeli attack in southern Lebanon would threaten the stability of the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington.
Netanyahu is being blamed by both Israeli „doves” and „hawks” for the military campaign in Lebanon: the right-wing urges him to continue the war and defeat Hezbollah – a difficult task given the armed group’s resistance and US pressure. Others know that defying Trump’s will will put further strain on US-Israeli relations.
Israel still illegally occupies about a fifth of Lebanon, and a framework agreement signed with Beirut in Washington on Friday leaves its remaining military presence in the country uncertain. A recent poll found that nearly three-quarters of Israelis support continuing to occupy Lebanon, while just over a tenth oppose it.
Gadi Eisenkot – former Israeli Chief of Staff and Netanyahu's current main political challenger – traced the US-Israeli friction to Netanyahu's inability to make Washington understand his country's Lebanon strategy.
„We failed to capitalize on our military successes and woke up to a security reality that should not have been allowed to linger,” Eisenkot said in a Hebrew-language podcast about the Israeli invasion stalling. „The fact that Israel needs Washington’s approval to strike in Lebanon is also unthinkable.”
„Much of the opposition is getting ahead of him on the right by claiming they have their own magic military or diplomatic solutions to what’s happening in Lebanon,” said Daniel Levy, a former government adviser. „Meanwhile, Netanyahu is playing for time and actively working to undermine the U.S.-Iran deal.”
American relations Under the memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the US on June 18, both sides and their allies commit to „an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Perhaps most importantly for Netanyahu, the document states that both countries guarantee „the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”.
Despite this, Israel has publicly refused to commit to withdrawing from Lebanese territory and continues to attack the country; the latest conflict since March 2 has killed some 4,230 people and wounded 12,179. Meanwhile, northern Israeli cities remain within range of Hezbollah rockets and drones, and the country is far from defeating the Lebanese armed group.
„Netanyahu promised the people of northern Israel a future that was impossible to deliver,” said political analyst Ori Goldberg. „He promised them that there would come a morning when they would wake up, look out the window, and never see an Arab again, but I’m not sure people really believed that or thought it could happen. People are tired, they want some normality. So there may be room for Netanyahu to maneuver on Lebanon, which he might be able to get away with.”
Israel's room for maneuver in Lebanon, however, may be short-lived. According to media reports, Trump is growing tired of Netanyahu's actions in Lebanon and elsewhere, calling the Israeli prime minister "crazy" in a phone call.
On June 7, Trump told The Financial Times that Netanyahu must abide by Washington's ceasefire agreement with Iran, adding: "I make the decisions. He doesn't make the decisions."„
Levy noted that while Trump had seven face-to-face meetings with Netanyahu in the first 13 months of his presidency, none since the war against Iran launched on February 28, 2026.
„"This will worry Netanyahu. Right now, he's probably busy with another meeting... he needs to think about what he can do to regain the trust of the American president before the election," Levy told Al Jazeera. "Netanyahu is watching the minute hand while avoiding the hour hand; time is so tight."”
